کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5758395 | 1622896 | 2017 | 13 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Assessment of irrigated maize yield response to climate change scenarios in Portugal
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی پاسخ عملکرد ذرت آبی به سناریوهای تغییر آب و هوا در پرتغال
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم زراعت و اصلاح نباتات
چکیده انگلیسی
Maize is an important crop for the Portuguese agricultural sector. Future climate change, with warmer and dryer conditions in this Mediterranean environment, will challenge this high-water demanding crop. The present study aims at assessing the response of maize yield, growth cycle, seasonal water input and daily water productivity (DWP) to climate change, and analyse water-yield relations. For this purpose, two process-based crop models are used (STICS and AquaCrop) and were validated in simulating irrigated maize yields in Central Portugal (Ribatejo) by using regional statistics (1986-2005). Both models show an overall agreement in their outputs. The 2-model mean outputs are considered under future climate projections (2021-2080; RCP4.5 and 8.5), using the global/regional climate model chain M-MPI-ESM-LR/SMHI-RCA4. The most significant reductions on maize yield (â17%), growth cycle (â12%) and DWP (â19%) are observed for 2061-2080 under RCP8.5, with a noticeable decrease of seasonal water input (â9%) during 2041-2060. Decreased DWP is largely due to significant yield reduction, with limited benefit of atmospheric CO2 enrichment. A water-yield relation analysis highlights that an increase of 2-14% in irrigation for future scenarios (compared to 1986-2005) might be a suitable strategy to mitigate yield reduction, despite substantially lower DWP (down to â23%). These findings demonstrate that our model approach can be used as a decision support tool by Portuguese farmers, particularly in optimizing maize production under changing climates.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Agricultural Water Management - Volume 184, April 2017, Pages 178-190
Journal: Agricultural Water Management - Volume 184, April 2017, Pages 178-190
نویسندگان
Chenyao Yang, Helder Fraga, Wim Van Ieperen, João Andrade Santos,