کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
5771226 | 1629906 | 2017 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
- Rainfall erosivity in Europe & Switzerland is estimated to increase by 18% in 2050.
- Rainfall erosivity will increase in 81% of the study area and decrease in the rest.
- R-factor projections include the uncertainty of climatic models.
- Highest R-factor increase is projected in Northern & Central Europe.
- Erosivity is a driver for soil erosion, floods, natural hazards & land use change.
The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm haâ1 hâ1 yrâ1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.
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Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 548, May 2017, Pages 251-262