Can we depend on case management to prevent re-establishment of P. falciparum malaria, after local interruption of transmission?

► We model P. falciparum transmission re-establishment risk after local interruption. ► We simulate settings of varying receptivity, vulnerability, and case management. ► We examine uncertainty in predictions due to stochasticity and model assumptions. ► In most settings, case management alone cannot reliably prevent re-establishment. ► Decay of immunity reduces simulated risk of transmission re-establishment.