کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
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5904812 | 1159085 | 2011 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
BackgroundIn several recent papers it has been suggested that HIV prevalence and incidence are declining in Zimbabwe as a result of changing sexual behavior. We provide further support for these suggestions, based on an analysis of more extensive, age-stratified, HIV prevalence data from 1990 to 2009 for perinatal women in Harare, as well as data on incidence and mortality.Methodology/principal findingsPooled prevalence, incidence and mortality were fitted using a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model of HIV transmission; age-stratified prevalence data were fitted using double-logistic functions. We estimate that incidence peaked at 5.5% per year in 1991 declining to 1% per year in 2010. Prevalence peaked in 1998/9 [35.9% (CI95: 31.3-40.7)] and decreased by 67% to 11.9% (CI95: 10.1-13.8) in 2009. For women < 20 y, 20-24 y, 25-29 y, 30-34 y and â¥Â 35 y, prevalence peaked at 25.4%, 34.2%, 47.1%, 44.0% and 33.5% in 1993, 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999, respectively, declining thereafter in every age group. Among women < 25 y, prevalence peaked in 1994 at 28.8% declining thereafter by 69% to 8.9% (CI95: 6.8-11.5) in 2009.Conclusion/significanceHIV prevalence declined substantially among perinatal women in Harare after 1998 consequent upon a decline in incidence starting in the early 1990s. Our model suggests that this was primarily a result of changes in behavior which we attribute to a general increase in awareness of the dangers of AIDS and the ever more apparent increases in mortality.
Journal: Epidemics - Volume 3, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 88-94