Modelling scenarios on feed-to-fillet transfer of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in future feeds to farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

The salmon feed composition has changed the last decade with a replacement of traditionally use of fish oil and fishmeal diets with vegetable ingredients and the use decontaminated fish oils, causing reduced concentrations of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in farmed Norwegian Atlantic salmon. The development of novel salmon feeds has prompted the need for prediction on dioxins and dl-PCB concentrations in future farmed salmon. Prediction on fillet dioxins and dl-PCB concentrations from different feed composition scenarios are made using a simple one-compartmental transfer model based on earlier established dioxin and dl-PCB congener specific uptake and elimination kinetics rates. The model is validated with two independent feeding trials, with a significant linear correlation (r2 = 0.96, y = 1.0x, p < 0.0001, n = 116) between observed and predicted values. Model fillet predictions are made for the following four scenarios; (1) general feed composition of 1999, (2) feed composition of 2013, (3) future feed composition with high fish oil and meal replacement, (4) future feed composition with high fish oil and meal replacement and decontaminated fish oil. Model predictions of fillet dioxin and dl-PCB concentrations from 1999 (1.05 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg−1ww) and 2013 (0.57 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg−1ww) are in line with the data observed in national surveillance programs of those years (1.1 and 0.52 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg−1ww, respectively). Future use of high replacement and decontaminated oils feeds gave predicted fillet concentrations of 0.27 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg−1ww, which is near the limit of quantification.