Differential impacts of rainfall and irrigation on agricultural production in Nigeria: Any lessons for climate-smart agriculture?

The rain-fed agriculture system is vulnerable to climate change impact. However, such impact may also vary by aggregate and sub-sectoral levels of agricultural production. The impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production would engender appropriate policies and practices towards a sustainable agricultural production system. We investigated the differential impacts of rainfall and irrigation on agricultural production in Nigeria, and drew lessons for climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in Nigeria. Using time series data that spanned 43 years and econometric analytical technique, we quantified the differential impacts of rainfall and irrigation on aggregate production and sub-sectors (all crops, staples, livestock, fisheries and forestry). Irrigation had positive and significant impact on aggregate agricultural production as well as all sub-sectors of agriculture. These findings suggest the need for the minimization of the impact of climate-induced production risks through CSA which would involve complementary development of more arable land areas under irrigation in Nigeria. Irrigation would also enhance complementary agricultural water management for the development of all the sub-sectors of agriculture, thereby enhancing food security and sustainable agricultural production under prevailing climate change and variability.