Determining probability distributions of parameter performances for time-series model calibration: A river system trial

- A generic calibration method was developed that uses sub-period resampling.
- The method estimates probability distributions of performance for parameter sets.
- The method was implemented for 192 reaches in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia.
- Results were compared to a traditional calibration-validation method.
- The new method showed statistically significant improvement to validation results.

SummaryA calibration method is presented that uses a sub-period resampling method to estimate probability distributions of performance for different parameter sets. Where conventional calibration methods implicitly identify the best performing parameterisations on average, the new method looks at the consistency of performance during sub-periods. The method is implemented with the conceptual river reach algorithms within the Australian Water Resources Assessments River (AWRA-R) model in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. The new method is tested for 192 reaches in a cross-validation scheme and results are compared to a traditional split-sample calibration-validation implementation. This is done to evaluate the new technique's ability to predict daily streamflow outside the calibration period. The new calibration method produced parameterisations that performed better in validation periods than optimum calibration parameter sets for 103 reaches and produced the same parameterisations for 35 reaches. The method showed a statistically significant improvement to predictive performance and potentially provides more rational flux terms over traditional split-sample calibration methods. Particular strengths of the proposed calibration method is that it avoids extra weighting towards rare periods of good agreement and also prevents compensating biases through time. The method can be used as a diagnostic tool to evaluate stochasticity of modelled systems and used to determine suitable model structures of different time-series models. Although the method is demonstrated using a hydrological model, the method is not limited to the field of hydrology and could be adopted for many different time-series modelling applications.