Credibility theory based dynamic control bound optimization for reservoir flood limited water level

- Credibility theory was used to determine the optimal dynamic control bound of FLWL.
- A credibility-based fuzzy chance constrained model was proposed in this paper.
- Extreme risk theory was used to verify the rationality and feasibility of the model.

SummaryThe dynamic control operation of reservoir flood limited water level (FLWL) can solve the contradictions between reservoir flood control and beneficial operation well, and it is an important measure to make sure the security of flood control and realize the flood utilization. The dynamic control bound of FLWL is a fundamental key element for implementing reservoir dynamic control operation. In order to optimize the dynamic control bound of FLWL by considering flood forecasting error, this paper took the forecasting error as a fuzzy variable, and described it with the emerging credibility theory in recent years. By combining the flood forecasting error quantitative model, a credibility-based fuzzy chance constrained model used to optimize the dynamic control bound was proposed in this paper, and fuzzy simulation technology was used to solve the model. The FENGTAN reservoir in China was selected as a case study, and the results show that, compared with the original operation water level, the initial operation water level (IOWL) of FENGTAN reservoir can be raised 4 m, 2 m and 5.5 m respectively in the three division stages of flood season, and without increasing flood control risk. In addition, the rationality and feasibility of the proposed forecasting error quantitative model and credibility-based dynamic control bound optimization model are verified by the calculation results of extreme risk theory.