An improved method to represent DEM uncertainty in glacial lake outburst flood propagation using stochastic simulations

- A GIS-based MC-LCP (Monte Carlo Least Cost Path) model is developed.
- Hypothetical socio-economic impacts are strongly linked to model and DEM choice.
- Uncertainty in model choice and terrain data is quantified.
- MC-LCP displays least sensitivity to DEM choice compared to an existing method.

SummaryModelling glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) or 'jökulhlaups', necessarily involves the propagation of large and often stochastic uncertainties throughout the source to impact process chain. Since flood routing is primarily a function of underlying topography, communication of digital elevation model (DEM) uncertainty should accompany such modelling efforts. Here, a new stochastic first-pass assessment technique was evaluated against an existing GIS-based model and an existing 1D hydrodynamic model, using three DEMs with different spatial resolution. The analysis revealed the effect of DEM uncertainty and model choice on several flood parameters and on the prediction of socio-economic impacts. Our new model, which we call MC-LCP (Monte Carlo Least Cost Path) and which is distributed in the supplementary information, demonstrated enhanced 'stability' when compared to the two existing methods, and this 'stability' was independent of DEM choice. The MC-LCP model outputs an uncertainty continuum within its extent, from which relative socio-economic risk can be evaluated. In a comparison of all DEM and model combinations, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM exhibited fewer artefacts compared to those with the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model (ASTER GDEM), and were comparable to those with a finer resolution Advanced Land Observing Satellite Panchromatic Remote-sensing Instrument for Stereo Mapping (ALOS PRISM) derived DEM. Overall, we contend that the variability we find between flood routing model results suggests that consideration of DEM uncertainty and pre-processing methods is important when assessing flow routing and when evaluating potential socio-economic implications of a GLOF event. Incorporation of a stochastic variable provides an illustration of uncertainty that is important when modelling and communicating assessments of an inherently complex process.