Potential changes in inflow design flood under future climate projections for Darbandikhan Dam

- We develop design flood predictive method.
- We utilize statistically downscaled inflow, which has not been applied yet.
- Our method is alternative to most widely used PMF methodology.
- We consider different climate change scenarios to have more realistic results.
- This makes our method very useful in early design of dams.

SummaryInsignificant changes in the future system might be assumed due to the impacts of climate changes. Temperature changes and anticipated precipitation suggest possible changes in floods. Extreme events will have bigger impacts on sectors with direct connections to climate, such as water sector; there is great belief that climate changes have the potential to critically affect water management systems. This study investigated how future climate change might affect the Inflow Design Flood (IDF) of Darbandikhan Dam. The study uses the projected downscaled daily inflow from Global Climate Models (GCMs) in comparative to the historical peak inflows. Flood frequency analysis based on historical data, both observed and statistically downscaled, was used to obtain the new design flood values. Analysis of the future projections of flood frequency analysis (FFA) reveals a general tendency toward changes in the magnitude of IDF.