Integrating indicator-based geostatistical estimation and aquifer vulnerability of nitrate-N for establishing groundwater protection zones

- Using indicator kriging and aquifer vulnerability maps groundwater protection zones.
- Probabilities of nitrate-N estimated by logistic regression are local prior means.
- Integrating indicator kriging and logistic regression is a robust estimate approach.
- Strict management practices for fertilizer use should be implemented in orchards.

SummaryGroundwater nitrate-N contamination occurs frequently in agricultural regions, primarily resulting from surface agricultural activities. The focus of this study is to establish groundwater protection zones based on indicator-based geostatistical estimation and aquifer vulnerability of nitrate-N in the Choushui River alluvial fan in Taiwan. The groundwater protection zones are determined by univariate indicator kriging (IK) estimation, aquifer vulnerability assessment using logistic regression (LR), and integration of the IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability using simple IK with local prior means (sIKlpm). First, according to the statistical significance of source, transport, and attenuation factors dominating the occurrence of nitrate-N pollution, a LR model was adopted to evaluate aquifer vulnerability and to characterize occurrence probability of nitrate-N exceeding 0.5 mg/L. Moreover, the probabilities estimated using LR were regarded as local prior means. IK was then used to estimate the actual extent of nitrate-N pollution. The integration of the IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability was obtained using sIKlpm. Finally, groundwater protection zones were probabilistically determined using the three aforementioned methods, and the estimated accuracy of the delineated groundwater protection zones was gauged using a cross-validation procedure based on observed nitrate-N data. The results reveal that the integration of the IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability using sIKlpm is more robust than univariate IK estimation and aquifer vulnerability assessment using LR for establishing groundwater protection zones. Rigorous management practices for fertilizer use should be implemented in orchards situated in the determined groundwater protection zones.