Relationships between rainfall and Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) occurrences

- Model based on rainfall thresholds was developed to forecast CSO occurrence.
- CSO records for 4285 overflow structures (OS) in Quebec were analyzed.
- Probability of days with CSO were used to estimate the rainfall threshold value.
- Threshold model has demonstrated significant forecast skill for 91.3% of the OS.

SummaryCombined Sewer Overflow (CSO) has been recognized as a major environmental issue in many countries. In Canada, the proposed reinforcement of the CSO frequency regulations will result in new constraints on municipal development. Municipalities will have to demonstrate that new developments do not increase CSO frequency above a reference level based on historical CSO records. Governmental agencies will also have to define a framework to assess the impact of new developments on CSO frequency and the efficiency of the various proposed measures to maintain CSO frequency at its historic level. In such a context, it is important to correctly assess the average number of days with CSO and to define relationships between CSO frequency and rainfall characteristics. This paper investigates such relationships using available CSO and rainfall datasets for Quebec. CSO records for 4285 overflow structures (OS) were analyzed. A simple model based on rainfall thresholds was developed to forecast the occurrence of CSO on a given day based on daily rainfall values. The estimated probability of days with CSO have been used to estimate the rainfall threshold value at each OS by imposing that the probability of exceeding this rainfall value for a given day be equal to the estimated probability of days with CSO. The forecast skill of this model was assessed for 3437 OS using contingency tables. The statistical significance of the forecast skill could be assessed for 64.2% of these OS. The threshold model has demonstrated significant forecast skill for 91.3% of these OS confirming that for most OS a simple threshold model can be used to assess the occurrence of CSO.