Potential relation between equatorial sea surface temperatures and historic water level variability for Lake Turkana, Kenya

- SST anomalies appear to correlate significantly with Lake Turkana water level.
- Regressions of SST anomalies and lake level change augmented by Bootstrap sampling.
- Increases in lake level linked to positive Indian Ocean SST anomalies in boreal fall.
- Post ca. 1930 meter-scale variability is linked to variations in Indian Ocean SST.
- Historical drop of 15 m may reflect reduced role of Atlantic-derived sources.

SummaryWater level in Lake Turkana, Kenya in the past ca. 150 years is controlled primarily from the biannual passage of the East and West African Monsoon, with rainfall volume related partially to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Western Indian and East Atlantic oceans. Empirical orthogonal function analyses show significant correlation between Eastern Atlantic or Western Indian SSTs and lake level anomalies, with the first mode accounting for 66% and 55% of the variability. The primary geographic loadings are consistent with a Gulf of Guinea moisture source and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) state. The second mode explains 10% of variability, and reflects the westward extension of an Indian Ocean cool pool, potentially indicative of a normal to a negative IOD state. There is significant spatial correlation between basin rainfall anomalies associated with Eastern Atlantic SSTs and a low in the continental divide between the Kenyan and the Ethiopian Highlands, which is a passage for moisture from the Congo Basin. Linear regression analysis with Bootstrap sampling and Monte Carlo simulations define numeric relations between Western Indian and Eastern Atlantic SSTs and lake level change for AD 1992-2013. The monthly and yearly lake level reconstructions based on this numeric analysis capture the decadal-scale variability and the 15 m drop in water level in the early 20th century. Meter-scale variability in lake level since ca. AD 1930 is associated with precipitation sourced from the Western Indian Ocean with IOD variability, whereas the 15 m drop in water level in the early 20th century may reflect a profound decrease in moisture from Atlantic/Congo Basin source. These numerical solutions are poised to reconstruct water level variations in the past ca. 300 years for Lake Turkana with new proxy records of SSTs from the Western Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Guinea.