کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6412142 1332897 2014 22 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 2. Streamflow verification
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 2. Streamflow verification
چکیده انگلیسی


- The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service is an operational forecasting system.
- Streamflow hindcasts are produced and verified for selected headwaters.
- The total skill is decomposed into contributions from the meteorology and hydrology.
- The streamflow forecasts are generally skillful, but show some conditional biases.
- Forecast quality depends on many factors including location, season, and flow rate.

SummaryRetrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow were generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) for a 20-year period between 1979 and 1999. The hindcasts were produced for two basins in each of four River Forecast Centers (RFCs), namely the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC, the Colorado Basin RFC, the California-Nevada RFC and the Middle Atlantic RFC. In a companion paper, temperature and precipitation hindcasts were produced with the Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP) and verified against observed temperature and precipitation, respectively. Inputs to the MEFP comprised raw precipitation and temperature forecasts from the frozen (circa 1997) version of the NWS Global Forecast System (MEFP-GFS) and a conditional or “resampled” climatology (MEFP-CLIM). For this paper, streamflow hindcasts were produced with the Community Hydrologic Prediction System and were bias-corrected with the Ensemble Post-processor (EnsPost). In order to separate the meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties, the raw streamflow forecasts were verified against simulated streamflows, as well as observed flows. Also, when verifying the bias-corrected streamflow forecasts, the total skill was decomposed into contributions from the MEFP-GFS and the EnsPost. In general, the streamflow forecasts are substantially more skillful when using the MEFP-GFS together with the EnsPost than using the MEFP with resampled climatology alone. However, both the raw and bias-corrected streamflow forecasts have lower biases, stronger correlations and are more skillful in CB- and CN-RFCs than AB- and MA-RFCs. In addition, there are strong variations in forecast quality with streamflow amount, forecast lead time, season and aggregation period. The relative importance of the meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties also varies between basins and is modulated by the same controls on forecast quality. For example, the MEFP-GFS accounts for the majority of skill in the CNRFC basins. This is associated with the greater predictability of large storms in the North Coast Ranges during the winter months. In CBRFC, much of the skill in the streamflow forecasts originates from the hydrologic modeling and the EnsPost, particularly during the snowmelt period. In AB- and MA-RFCs, the contributions from the MEFP and the EnsPost are more variable. This paper summarizes the verification results, describes the expected performance and limitations of the HEFS for short- to medium-range streamflow forecasting, and provides recommendations for future research.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 519, Part D, 27 November 2014, Pages 2847-2868
نویسندگان
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