کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6412309 1332897 2014 17 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Review of trend analysis and climate change projections of extreme precipitation and floods in Europe
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
بررسی روند تحلیل روند و پیشبینی تغییرات اقلیم بارشهای شدید و سیلاب در اروپا
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی


- Review of methods applied and key findings from a large number of studies in Europe.
- Observations and climate model projections show an increase in extreme precipitation.
- Hydrological projections of floods show large impacts in many areas.
- Snowmelt-dominated catchments show a decrease in flood magnitude.
- Few countries in Europe have developed guidelines for incorporating climate change.

SummaryThis paper presents a review of trend analysis of extreme precipitation and hydrological floods in Europe based on observations and future climate projections. The review summaries methods and methodologies applied and key findings from a large number of studies. Reported analyses of observed extreme precipitation and flood records show that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant trends at large-scale regional or national level of extreme streamflow. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows, likely caused by increasing temperature. The review of likely future changes based on climate projections indicates a general increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trends. Hydrological projections of peak flows show large impacts in many areas with both positive and negative changes. A general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are projected for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows, which is consistent with the observed trends. Finally, existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation are reviewed. The review shows that only few countries have developed guidelines that incorporate a consideration of climate change impacts.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 519, Part D, 27 November 2014, Pages 3634-3650
نویسندگان
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