Modeling and forecasting riverine dissolved inorganic nitrogen export using anthropogenic nitrogen inputs, hydroclimate, and land-use change

- Long-term trends of anthropogenic N inputs and river DIN export are determined.
- Relationships between river DIN export and influencing factors are addressed.
- A model considered NANI, hydroclimate, and land use is developed for river DIN export.
- Contribution of storage N sources to annual riverine DIN export is identified.
- Response of river DIN export to climate and human activity changes is predicted.

SummaryA quantitative understanding of riverine nitrogen (N) export in response to human activities and climate change is critical for developing effective watershed N pollution control measures. This study quantified net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine dissolved inorganic N (DIN = NO3-N + NH4-N + NO2-N) export for the upper Jiaojiang River catchment in eastern China over the 1980-2010 time period and examined how NANI, hydroclimate, and land-use practices influenced riverine DIN export. Over the 31-yr study period, riverine DIN yield increased by 1.6-fold, which mainly results from a ∼77% increase in NANI and increasing fractional delivery of NANI due to a ∼55% increase in developed land area. An empirical model that utilizes an exponential function of NANI and a power function of combining annual water discharge and developed land area percentage could account for 89% of the variation in annual riverine DIN yields in 1980-2010. Applying this model, annual NANI, catchment storage, and natural background sources were estimated to contribute 57%, 22%, and 21%, respectively, of annual riverine DIN exports on average. Forecasting based on a likely future climate change scenario predicted a 19.6% increase in riverine DIN yield by 2030 due to a 4% increase in annual discharge with no changes in NANI and land-use compared to the 2000-2010 baseline condition. Anthropogenic activities have increased both the N inputs available for export and the fractional export of N inputs, while climate change can further enhance riverine N export. An integrated N management strategy that considers the influence of anthropogenic N inputs, land-use and climate change is required to effectively control N inputs to coastal areas.