The mechanism and scenarios of how mean annual runoff varies with climate change in Asian monsoon areas

- We model runoff change (%) of 7 Asian monsoon basins in China under different RCPs.
- The mechanism of the effect of climate change on runoff is explored.
- In the future, mean runoff decreasing velocity is the fastest in RCP8.5 scenarios.
- The elasticity change trend in the future scenarios assumes a centrosymmetric picture.

SummaryUnderstanding the effects of climate change on runoff is important for the sustainable management of water resources. However, the mechanism of such effects in the Asian monsoon region remains unclear. This study revisits Fu's two-parameter climate elasticity index and enhances it by using the Gardner function to strengthen the former's prediction reliability when the future climate condition is beyond the historical range. Then the improved method was applied to study the elasticity change with temperature and precipitation in the eastern monsoon basins of China, whereas to explore the mechanism of climate change on runoff. Furthermore, the runoff change and the elasticity of the study area from 2020 to 2050 under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were predicted. Results show that the trend of elasticity change assumes a centrosymmetric picture with the symmetric point (0, 0). Different catchments respond differently to the same climate change scenario: the sensitivity of the Haihe Basin is the highest; those of Yellow, Huaihe, Liaohe, Songhua, Pearl, Yangtze, and Southeast Rivers are lower, in descending order. The changing mode of precipitation and temperature differs greatly to keep the runoff unchanged. For semi-humid regions in which the mean annual temperature ranges from 0.71 °C to 9.0 °C, such as the basins of Songhua, Liaohe, Haihe, and Yellow, a 1 °C increase in temperature requires a corresponding 3.2-4.0% increase in precipitation to keep the runoff unchanged. However, in wet regions, such as the basins of Yangtze, Southeast Rivers, and Pearl, the same change in temperature requires a less than 2.8% increase in precipitation to keep the runoff unchanged. In the future, the runoff in most basins may decrease in different degrees. The decreasing velocity of the runoff is the fastest in the RCP8.5 scenario and the decreasing trend of the runoff slows down under the RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios. The proposed method can be applied to other basins to assess potential climate change effects on annual runoff. The results of the basins studies can inform planning of long-term basin water management strategies taking into account global change scenarios.