Multi-criteria decision assessments using Subjective Logic: Methodology and the case of urban water strategies

SummaryPlanning of regional and urban water resources, and in particular with Integrated Urban Water Management approaches, often considers inter-relationships between human uses of water, the health of the natural environment as well as the cost of various management strategies. Decision makers hence typically need to consider a combination of social, environmental and economic goals. The types of strategies employed can include water efficiency measures, water sensitive urban design, stormwater management, or catchment management. Therefore, decision makers need to choose between different scenarios and to evaluate them against a number of criteria. This type of problem has a discipline devoted to it, i.e. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, which has often been applied in water management contexts. This paper describes the application of Subjective Logic in a basic Bayesian Network to a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis problem. By doing this, it outlines a novel methodology that explicitly incorporates uncertainty and information reliability. The application of the methodology to a known case study context allows for exploration. By making uncertainty and reliability of assessments explicit, it allows for assessing risks of various options, and this may help in alleviating cognitive biases and move towards a well formulated risk management policy.

► We explore a new method for undertaking multi-criteria decision assessment. ► The method considers types of uncertainty including on information quality. ► Outcomes are evaluated Bayesian Networks and Subjective Logic. ► The method is trialled in a case study on water services in a new development. ► The approach can allow for risk assessment and identifying knowledge gaps.