Environmental factors associated with the spatial distribution of invasive plant pathogens in the Iberian Peninsula: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands

Although spatial variability in the distribution of soil organisms is often regarded as random, recent attempts have found significant spatial structure at several scales. Understanding the drivers of this variability at large scale could help to evaluate the ecological and socio-economic impacts of soil organisms in the ecosystems. In the present study we aim to (i) understand the relative role of environmental factors and human influence on the distribution of one of the World's most destructive and invasive plant pathogens, Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands, and (ii) to estimate its potential geographic distribution in the Iberian Peninsula as a proxy of its potential impact. For this purpose, we used a total of 277 records of P. cinnamomi (presence: n = 157; absences: n = 120) in the Iberian Peninsula and three sets of explanatory variables reflecting abiotic conditions (climate and soil), biotic conditions (main susceptible host tress distribution and vegetation cover based on NDVI) and human influence. The current distribution of P. cinnamomi in the Iberian Peninsula seems to be influenced principally by fine texture soil and climate, following the land use and lastly the presence of its main host forest species. Its potential distribution across the Iberian Peninsula suggests potential for further expansion along the northeast and southeast of Spain and central Portugal. Given the significant impact of this pathogen on forest ecosystems, the modelling of its distribution in the Iberian Peninsula offers an important decision tool for the monitoring and restoration of declining Mediterranean oak forests.