Do lead markets for clean coal technology follow market demand? A case study for China, Germany, Japan and the US

Despite high CO2 emissions released by coal-fired energy production, coal will remain an important source of energy in coming decades. This case study explores the lead market status of China, Germany, Japan and the US for clean coal technologies. We concentrate on two existing technological standards: supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) pulverized coal technologies. In 1960s and 1970s, the US was a lead market for SC und USC technologies. During these decades, Japan was a lag market, but it surpassed the US in the early 1980s. Recently price and demand advantages began to shift to China. We conclude that lead market status may switch over time to markets with high growth rates, although first mover advantages may exist in non-lead markets for some R&D-intensive products, such as turbines. Less R&D-intensive products, such as boilers, are attractive as a basis for leapfrogging strategies, which many emerging countries have been successfully employing.