Probabilistic model for multi-axial dynamic load combinations for wind turbines

The article presents a model describing the joint probability distribution of multiple load components acting on a wind turbine blade cross section. The problem of modelling the probability distribution of load time histories with large periodic components is addressed by dividing the signal into a periodic part and a perturbation term, where each part has a known probability distribution. The proposed model shows good agreement with simulated data under stationary conditions, and a design load envelope based on this model is comparable to the load envelope estimated using the standard procedure for determining contemporaneous loads. Using examples with simulated loads on a 10 MW wind turbine, the behavior of the bending moments acting on a blade section is illustrated under different conditions. The loading direction most critical for material failure is determined using a finite-element model of the blade cross section on which load combinations with different directions but with equal probability are applied. By defining a joint probability distribution and return-period contours for multiple load components, the suggested procedure is applicable to different aspects of the design of wind turbine blades, including the possibility for carrying out reliability analysis on an entire cross section.