Spatial variability and stochastic strength prediction of unreinforced masonry walls in vertical bending

The flexural bond strength of unreinforced masonry (URM) is a key material property affecting wall out-of-plane lateral load capacity. It is well known that the unit flexural bond strength (defined here as the flexural strength of the bond between the brick and lower mortar bed joint associated with any given masonry unit (brick)) varies considerably between units, and that this spatial variability might significantly affect the structural performance and reliability of URM walls in flexure. The paper develops a computational method to predict the strength for non-load bearing single skin URM walls subject to one-way vertical bending considering unit-to-unit spatial variability of flexural bond strength. We characterise the probability distributions of wall strength and examine how spatial variability in unit flexural bond strength affects the variability of base cracking load, mid-height cracking load, peak load and behaviour of clay brick URM walls. This is done using 3-D non-linear Finite Element Analyses (FEA) and stochastic analysis in the form of Monte Carlo simulations. Varying COVs (0.1, 0.3 and 0.5) of unit flexural bond strength are considered. The mean and variance of wall strength are estimated to show the effect of spatial variability of flexural bond strength on wall strength. The failure modes of the wall are compared to show the significant differences between non-spatial and spatial analyses.