Corn stover semi-mechanistic enzymatic hydrolysis model with tight parameter confidence intervals for model-based process design and optimization

• A semi-mechanistic model is proposed for pretreated corn stover saccharification.
• The model considers high-solid saccharification and washed or unwashed solids.
• A subset of identifiable parameters was found showing tight confidence intervals.
• Uncertainty in parameters estimates was used to predict bands for glucose yield.
• The model reliably describes the saccharification kinetics of corn stover’ glucan.

Uncertainty associated to the estimated values of the parameters in a model is a key piece of information for decision makers and model users. However, this information is typically not reported or the confidence intervals are too large to be useful. A semi-mechanistic model for the enzymatic saccharification of dilute acid pretreated corn stover is proposed in this work, the model is a modification of an existing one providing a statistically significant improved fit towards a set of experimental data that includes varying initial solid loadings (10–25% w/w) and the use of the pretreatment liquor and washed solids with or without supplementation of key inhibitors. A subset of 8 out of 17 parameters was identified, showing sufficiently tight confidence intervals to be used in uncertainty propagation and model analysis, without requiring interval truncation via expert judgment.