کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
6964752 1452315 2012 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Sensitivity analysis of the MAGFLOW Cellular Automaton model for lava flow simulation
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Sensitivity analysis of the MAGFLOW Cellular Automaton model for lava flow simulation
چکیده انگلیسی
MAGFLOW is a physics-based numerical model for lava flow simulations based on the Cellular Automaton approach that has been successfully used to predict the lava flow paths during the recent eruptions on Mt Etna. We carried out an extensive sensitivity analysis of the physical and rheological parameters that control the evolution function of the automaton and which are measured during eruptive events, in an effort to verify the reliability of the model and improve its applicability to scenario forecasting. The results obtained, which include Sobol' sensitivity indices computed using polynomial chaos expansion, confirm the consistency of MAGFLOW with the underlying physical model and identify water content and solidus temperature as critical parameters for the automaton. Additional tests also indicate that flux rates can have a strong influence on the emplacement of lava flows, and that to obtain more accurate simulations it is better to have continuous monitoring of the effusion rates, even if with moderate errors, rather than sparse accurate measurements.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 35, July 2012, Pages 122-131
نویسندگان
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