The assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to drought in Southern Romania (Oltenia Plain)

Oltenia Plain is one of the most important agricultural regions in Romania and one of the most sensitive in terms of extreme weather phenomena i.e. drought, due to its location in the south-western part of the country, combined with the natural and socio-economic conditions. During the post-communist period, Oltenia Plain was subject to major transformations which triggered environmental consequences i.e. land use/land cover changes, excessive fragmentation of farming land, individual farms practicing subsistence agriculture, poor services in agriculture. All of these have turned this area into one of the most vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena leading to severe degradation of agricultural land with direct impact on crop production, human health, and rural welfare. The paper aims to develop a multi-criteria vulnerability assessment using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The authors are seeking to identify relevant indicators to assess various components of socio-economic vulnerability to the drought phenomenon, using the statistical data available at LAU 2 level. As a result, three main categories of statistical variables and indicators were taken into account: demographic and social features, economy and public utilities. Based on the resulted outcomes, the selected indicators are grouped in three major indexes: demographic and social vulnerability, economic vulnerability and infrastructure vulnerability based on which, an integrated socio-economic vulnerability index to drought (using the Hull score, average 50 and standard deviation 14) was computed. For the particularities of drought, the authors performed relevant climate indicators based on the meteorological data of the most representative weather stations in the study area.