The current cyclone early warning system in Bangladesh: Providers' and receivers' views

Bangladesh has experienced several catastrophic Tropical Cyclones (TCs) during the last decades. Despite the efforts of disaster management organizations, as well as the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), there were lapses in the residents' evacuation behavior. To examine the processes of TC forecasting and warning at BMD and to understand the reasons for residents' reluctance to evacuate after a cyclone warning, we conducted an individual in-depth interview among the meteorologists at BMD, as well as a questionnaire survey among the residents living in the coastal areas. The results reveal that the forecasts produced by BMD are not reliable for longer than 12-h. Therefore, longer-term warnings have to be based on gross estimates of TC intensity and motion, which renders the disseminated warning messages unreliable. Our results indicate that residents in the coastal areas studied, do not follow the evacuation orders due to mistrust of the warning messages-which can deter from early evacuation; and insufficient number of shelters and poor transportation possibilities-which discourages late evacuation. Suggestions made by the residents highlight the necessity of improved warning messages in the future. These findings indicate the need for improved forecasting, and more reliable and more informative warning messages for ensuring a timely evacuation response from residents.