A novel prediction method of creep rupture life of 9–12% chromium ferritic steel based on abductive network

The creep rupture life of 9–12% chromium ferritic steel is predicted as a function of alloy composition, creep stress, and creep temperature. A database is made up from data in previous publications. A novel abductive network is constructed to predict creep rupture life. With a four-layer architecture, the network shows a precise prediction of creep rupture life of 9–12% chromium ferritic steel. Performance is examined and compared with backpropagation algorithm (BP) neural network. Results indicate that the proposed approach is more accurate than Larson–Miller parametric method and more efficient than that of BP neural network. Automatic relevance determination reveals that the influence of Cr and W on creep rupture life of 9–12% chromium ferritic steel are the greatest amongst the alloying elements.

► A new prediction method of creep rupture life of 9–12% chromium steel is proposed.
► The model is more efficient than Larson–Miller method and BP neural network.
► It reveals the greatest influence is made by Cr and Mo.