کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8061389 1520512 2015 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Estimating the economic losses of port disruption due to extreme wind events
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
برآورد زیان های اقتصادی اختلال در بندر به دلیل حوادث شدید باد
کلمات کلیدی
رویدادهای باد شدید، اختلال در بندر از دست دادن اقتصادی، تایفون، تجزیه و تحلیل آب و هوا، تحلیل ریسک، شانگهای، نینگبو، شنژن،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات اقیانوس شناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
The operation of a seaport is highly dependent on the ocean climate, where a necessary consideration of the later is essential to govern the normal running of the seaborne transportation. To estimate the port risks associated with the climate factors is a challenging task. Not only because of the complexity in the weather, but also the variations in the daily trade volume. This paper develops an approach of estimating the economic losses of port disruptions induced by extreme wind events, and conducts a study for two selected ports, Ningbo and Shanghai. The loss considers both the variation in the daily cargo throughput and the climate. The throughput is analyzed in a regression analysis which accounts for both the long term trend and yearly cyclic components. The likelihood of port disruptions is estimated from a climate analysis based on the historic record at both ports. The calculation of the total economic loss is split into four parts, namely, reputational loss, loss to the shippers, loss to the carriers and loss to the ports. The results are illustrated in a comparison between Shanghai and Ningbo to provide the information of associated risks within different months. The study is also extended to investigate the influence of extreme wind events on the port of Shenzhen which is located in a different geographical region for comparison. The impact of the extreme wind events on the ports and the economy is then discussed.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Ocean & Coastal Management - Volume 116, November 2015, Pages 300-310
نویسندگان
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