Real-time risk of ship structures integrating structural health monitoring data: Application to multi-objective optimal ship routing

The aim of this paper is to develop a risk-informed approach for ship structures that integrates structural health monitoring (SHM) information. As an application, real-time optimal short range routing of ships is presented. Risk is based on the reliability analysis of the midship section of a hull and on its associated failure consequences. Different damage levels, accounting for the propagation of plastification throughout the hull section, are considered. Ship age is also investigated by including the effects of corrosion. SHM data, integrated within the developed decision support tool, provides useful information to be used during the real-time decision process. A novel closed-form solution for short term statistics based on Rayleigh prior distribution and a simulation-based technique are proposed for Bayesian updating. Finally, optimal short range routing of ships is accomplished by solving two- and three-objective optimization problems, in which the objectives to be minimized are the estimated time of arrival, mean total risk, and fuel cost, given sea weather maps and origin and destination points. Weather forecast, associated with different time frames, is also included within the developed framework. The solutions are obtained in the form of Pareto-optimal sets. The proposed approach is illustrated on a Joint High-Speed Sealift.