کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8503340 | 1554132 | 2018 | 7 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Exponential random graph models to evaluate the movement of backyard chickens after the avian influenza crisis in 2004-2005, Thailand
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل های گرافیکی تصادفی برای ارزیابی حرکت جوجه های حیاط پشتی پس از بحران آنفولانزای مرغی در سال های 2004-2005، تایلند
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کلمات کلیدی
GOFBICAICDLDERGMMCMCAvian influenza - آنفلوآنزای مرغیGoodness of fit - برازشThailand - تایلندNetwork analysis - تجزیه و تحلیل شبکهMarkov chain Monte Carlo - زنجیره مارکف مونت کارلوexponential random graph model - مدل گرافیکی تصادفی نمونهBackyard chicken - مرغ حیاط خلوتBayesian information criterion - معیار اطلاعات بیزیAkaike information criterion - معیار اطلاعاتی آکائیک
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری
علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک
علوم دامی و جانورشناسی
چکیده انگلیسی
The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to explain networks of movement of backyard chickens in provinces which had been hotspots for avian influenza outbreaks in Thailand during 2004-2005. We used structured questionnaires to collect data for the period January to December 2009 from participants who were involved in the backyard chicken farming network in three avian influenza hotspots (Ratchaburi, Suphan Buri, and Nakhon Pathom provinces) in Thailand. From 557 questionnaires, we identified nodes, points of entry and exit from nodes, and activities relating to backyard chicken farming and movement of chickens, and generated ERGMs based on non-festive periods (Model 1) and the Chinese New Year period (Model 2). In Model 1, k-star (the central node is connected to k other nodes) connections were predominant (Pâ<â 0.001). In Model 2, the frequency of movement increased by 10.62 times, k-star connections were still predominant (Pâ<â 0.001), and the model was scale-free. Hubs were formed from owners/observers in the arenas/training fields, farmers who raised chickens for consumption only, and traders. In conclusion, our models indicated that, if avian influenza was introduced during non-festive periods, the authorities would need to regularly restrict the movement of chickens. However, during high-frequency periods of movement of backyard chickens, authorities would also need to focus on the network hubs. Our research can be used by the relevant authorities to improve control measures and reduce the risk or lessen the magnitude of disease spread during an avian influenza epidemic.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Volume 158, 1 October 2018, Pages 71-77
Journal: Preventive Veterinary Medicine - Volume 158, 1 October 2018, Pages 71-77
نویسندگان
Chaithep Poolkhet, Kohei Makita, Sukanya Thongratsakul, Kansuda Leelehapongsathon,