Using a deterministic population model to evaluate population stability and the effects of fruit harvesting and livestock on baobab (Adansonia digitata L.) populations in five land-use types

• Fruit harvest levels of 33–90% sustainable under moderate to zero livestock numbers.
• High livestock numbers result in baobab population decline.
• Baboon predation of immature fruit results in baobab population decline.
• Infrequent in-season rainfall is a threat to successful recruitment.
• Active planting is required to secure the future of baobab populations in arid areas.

The subsistence and commercial use of baobab (Adansonia digitata) fruit is important to many thousands of marginalized people in the arid tropics of Africa, yet sustainable harvest levels have not previously been studied. Size-class distributions of baobab populations tend to be stable, suggesting high tolerance to fruit harvesting. However, environmental conditions have changed substantially over the last 100 years. Increasing livestock numbers, land modification and climate change are new threats which may affect tolerance to fruit harvesting. To investigate this, a deterministic stage-based population projection matrix model was developed using (a) long term baobab monitoring data from 2 sites, (b) radiocarbon age calculations, (c) extensive field surveys of population structure and fruit (and seed) production, and (d) experimental field trials on seed banks and seedling and sapling survival in relation to the presence of livestock. Projected population growth (λ) was then evaluated for five land-use types (nature reserves, rocky outcrops, plains, fields, and villages) under three levels of livestock (none, moderate and high stocking rates). Response to fruit harvest intensity was tested for each scenario by decreasing seed availability by 10% from 100%. High livestock numbers resulted in baobab population declines, with λ < 1 in all land-use types. Under moderate and zero livestock numbers, baobab populations in plains, rocky outcrops, villages and fields were able to tolerate between 33% and 90% fruit harvest rates. In nature reserves there was already high predation on immature fruit by baboons, another cause of population decline, with the model showing no tolerance whatsoever to fruit harvesting. These results show that fruit harvesting can be sustainable in production landscapes under moderate livestock levels. However the future is uncertain, as a predicted lowering of rainfall due to climate change is a further concern, with likely negative impacts on fruit yields and recruitment and consequently population projections. Thus active planting and protection of seedlings should take place to mitigate current and future negative impacts facing baobab populations.