Recent declines of Populus tremuloides in North America linked to climate

Populus tremuloides (trembling aspen) recently experienced extensive crown thinning, branch dieback, and mortality across North America. To investigate the role of climate, we developed a range-wide bioclimate model that characterizes climatic factors controlling distribution of aspen. We also examined indices of moisture stress, insect defoliation and other factors as potential causes of the decline. Historic climate records show that most decline regions experienced exceptionally severe drought preceding the recent episodes. The bioclimate model, driven primarily by maximum summer temperatures and April–September precipitation, shows that decline tended to occur in marginally suitable habitat, and that climatic suitability decreased markedly in the period leading up to decline in almost all decline regions. Other factors, notably multi-year defoliation by tent caterpillars (Malacosoma spp.) and stem damage by fungi and insects, also play a substantial role in decline episodes, and may amplify or prolong the impacts of moisture stress on aspen over large areas. Many severely affected stands have poor regeneration potential, raising concerns that increasing aridity could ultimately lead to widespread loss of aspen forest cover. The analysis indicates that exceptional droughts were a major cause of the decline episodes, especially in the drier regions, and that aspen is sensitive to drought in much of its range. Coupling the bioclimate model with climate projections suggests that we should expect substantial loss of suitable habitat within the current distribution, especially in the USA and Mexico.

► From 2000 to 2010, over 3.2 million ha of aspen decline were mapped in North America.
► Warm, dry extremes are strongly implicated in most episodes.
► In the west, decline sites were less suitable for aspen than aspen sites overall.
► Climate became less suitable for aspen in decline regions since 1961–1990.
► We project substantial loss of habitat in current range, especially in USA and Mexico.