Carbon budget of Ontario's managed forests and harvested wood products, 2001–2100

Forest and harvested wood products (HWP) carbon (C) stocks between 2001 and 2100 for Ontario's managed forests were projected using FORCARB-ON, an adaptation of the U.S. national forest C budget model known as FORCARB2. A fire disturbance module was introduced to FORCARB-ON to simulate the effects of wildfire on C, and some of the model's C pools were re-parameterized using data from Canadian forests. Forest C stocks were estimated using allometric equations that represent the relationships between C and net merchantable volume and forest age based on forest inventory statistics. Other pools were included using results from ecological studies related to forest inventory variables. Data from future forest development projections adopted in approved management plans were used as model input to produce forest C budgets for the province's Crown forest management units. The estimates were extended to other types of managed forests in Ontario: parks, measured fire management zones, and private forest lands. Carbon in HWP was estimated in four categories: wood in use, wood in landfill, wood burned for energy, and C emitted by wood decomposition or burning without energy generation. We projected that the C stocks in Ontario's managed forests and HWP (in use and in landfills) would increase by 465.3 Mt from 2001 to 2100, of which 47.9 Mt is from increases in forest C and 417.4 Mt is from HWP C.