Network and vulnerability analysis of international spice trade

The spice trade network is one of the oldest and substantially vulnerable systems of the agri-food supply chains. Based on statistical analysis of spice paprika (chilli red pepper) and black pepper trade flows within the EU member states, stochastic simulation models have been developed for prognosis of the proliferation of contaminated products between the member states as a function of the source-state of the contaminated products. Results highlight the rapidity of proliferation, and offer a simple, but robust tool for prediction of contamination patterns among states, serving the formation of a targeted defence strategy and policy Traditional geostatistical methods (e.g. Morens' I of spatial autocorrelation) in most cases are not suitable to predict the geographic distribution of contaminated products among countries, due to complexity and inter-connectedness of the European spice network. The pattern of proliferation of contaminated products between member states was analysed using a dyadic network of relational data, applying additive and multiplicative effects model. Results of analysis prove the importance of long-distance, international trade in distribution of contaminated products.