کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8894451 1629890 2018 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Change-signal impacts in downscaled data and its influence on hydroclimate projections
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تغییر سیگنال در داده های ضریب نفوذ و تاثیر آن بر پیش بینی آب و هوای نفوذ تاثیر می
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
Downscaling is the process by which output from global climate models is translated to finer resolution regional scale projections often used in impact studies. Many fundamentally different techniques can be used, each with different capabilities of resolving or representing sub-gridscale processes. The different formulations can lead to variations in the downscaled output with consequential impacts in the interpretation of future change. Here, future runoff is estimated for six catchments in the Australian state of Victoria using five different regional rainfall projection products. We investigate how differences in rainfall input manifest in a selection of regionally important hydroclimate metrics. Overall, annual runoff is projected to decline under most methods, but seasonal changes are more uncertain reflecting differences in the rainfall change signal for different downscaled products. Whilst change in flow metrics are mostly consistent with rainfall change factors, changes in low flow (e.g. 7-day minimum flow) show considerable uncertainty, especially for drier, ephemeral catchments. Results from empirical (simple) scaling of climate observations generally lie within the range of more complex downscaling methods. However, empirical scaling is unable to provide meaningful information on spatial heterogeneity in the change signals, as well as for several metrics of rainfall and runoff. Other downscaling methods can potentially provide information on these, but the large uncertainty remains a problem, as well as our currently poor understanding of method-related biases.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 564, September 2018, Pages 12-25
نویسندگان
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