کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8894836 | 1629893 | 2018 | 50 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Daily rainfall forecasting for one year in a single run using Singular Spectrum Analysis
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
بارش روزانه یک ساله را با استفاده از تجزیه و تحلیل طیف منحصر به فرد، پیش بینی می
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کلمات کلیدی
تجزیه و تحلیل طیف منحصر به فرد، روند غیر خطی، جزء دوره ای، جزء چرخه، سر و صدا، پیش بینی طولانی تر
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
Effective modelling and prediction of smaller time step rainfall is reported to be very difficult owing to its highly erratic nature. Accurate forecast of daily rainfall for longer duration (multi time step) may be exceptionally helpful in the efficient planning and management of water resources systems. Identification of inherent patterns in a rainfall time series is also important for an effective water resources planning and management system. In the present study, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is utilized to forecast the daily rainfall time series pertaining to Koyna watershed in Maharashtra, India, for 365â¯days after extracting various components of the rainfall time series such as trend, periodic component, noise and cyclic component. In order to forecast the time series for longer time step (365â¯days-one window length), the signal and noise components of the time series are forecasted separately and then added together. The results of the study show that the method of SSA could extract the various components of the time series effectively and could also forecast the daily rainfall time series for longer duration such as one year in a single run with reasonable accuracy.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 561, June 2018, Pages 609-621
Journal: Journal of Hydrology - Volume 561, June 2018, Pages 609-621
نویسندگان
Poornima Unnikrishnan, V. Jothiprakash,