کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8918284 1642828 2017 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Stochastic watershed models for hydrologic risk management
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل های حوضه ای تصادفی برای مدیریت ریسک هیدرولوژیکی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
Over half a century ago, the Harvard Water Program introduced the field of operational or synthetic hydrology providing stochastic streamflow models (SSMs), which could generate ensembles of synthetic streamflow traces useful for hydrologic risk management. The application of SSMs, based on streamflow observations alone, revolutionized water resources planning activities, yet has fallen out of favor due, in part, to their inability to account for the now nearly ubiquitous anthropogenic influences on streamflow. This commentary advances the modern equivalent of SSMs, termed 'stochastic watershed models' (SWMs) useful as input to nearly all modern risk based water resource decision making approaches. SWMs are deterministic watershed models implemented using stochastic meteorological series, model parameters and model errors, to generate ensembles of streamflow traces that represent the variability in possible future streamflows. SWMs combine deterministic watershed models, which are ideally suited to accounting for anthropogenic influences, with recent developments in uncertainty analysis and principles of stochastic simulation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Water Security - Volume 1, July 2017, Pages 28-35
نویسندگان
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