Defining the risk to water and natural capital in cities with risk component analysis tool (DAPSET): Case study Łódź

Management of water resources poses a particular challenge in cities, due to the extensive degradation of the urban ecosystem and its limited self-regulatory capacity as compared to natural systems. Effective management requires an in-depth understanding of the sources (drivers) giving rise to such risk. This paper reports on a participatory identification of such factors driving the risk to urban water resources in the city of Łódź, Poland, carried out with the aim of testing a simple risk analysis tool (DAPSET - Drivers and Pressures - Strength Evaluation Tool), intended to yield the kind of complex data able to help assist city managers in decision-making processes. In the first part of the study, a number of selected public officials, students, researchers and NGO representatives were asked to rank the key socioeconomic drivers of water resources in the city. The four drivers identified as key (a low degree of environmental awareness among citizens, low law-enforcement efficiency, the city's low economic potential and land use changes) were then scrutinized in the second part of the study, which included a self-administered questionnaire designed to create a risk profile of drivers based on the DAPSET. Each of the four key drivers were analyzed with reference to eleven features. DAPSET revealed that all the key drivers share certain common features: they affect a large spatial scale, the damage they cause is persistent, and they involve either medium-high damage potential or probability of damage. The major differences between them stem from the dynamic features of the risk: societal attraction, invisibility, and availability of information. Analysis of the risk profiles so created against risk types pointed to the desirable directions of management and a need to go beyond standard actions.