Lineage extinction and replacement in dengue type 1 virus populations are due to stochastic events rather than to natural selection

Between 1996 and 1998, two clades (B and C; genotype I) of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) appeared in Myanmar (Burma) that were new to that location. Between 1998 and 2000, a third clade (A; genotype III) of DENV-1, which had been circulating at that locality for at least 25 years, became extinct. These changes preceded the largest outbreak of dengue recorded in Myanmar, in 2001, in which more than 95% of viruses recovered from patients were DENV-1, but where the incidence of severe disease was much less than in previous years. Phylogenetic analyses of viral genomes indicated that the two new clades of DENV-1 did not arise from the, now extinct, clade A viruses nor was the extinction of this clade due to differences in the fitness of the viral populations. Since the extinction occurred during an inter-epidemic period, we suggest that it was due to a stochastic event attributable to the low rate of virus transmission in this interval.