The role of dynamic risk factors in the explanation of offending

• Presents first systematic analysis of the theoretical analysis of dynamic risk factors
• Examines guidelines for translating risk predictor in causal factors
• Presents novel framework for utilizing dynamic risk factors in research and practice contexts

The focus of this paper is on what role dynamic risk factors should play in the development of explanations of crime. Following a discussion of the nature of explanation we propose that in their current form dynamic risk factors should not be regarded as causes of crime because they cannot be coherently conceptualized as causal mechanisms. We then examine the issue of how best to ascertain whether risk factors are causes and a number of methodological guidelines are suggested to assist in this evaluation process. Finally, we conclude that dynamic risk factors are valuable predictors of recidivism and that, additionally, suitably reconstructed they can serve an important methodological function in identifying the causes of crime and reoffending.