Team allegiance can lead to both optimistic and pessimistic predictions

Although team allegiance is usually associated with optimistic predictions about team performance, the authors hypothesized that preferences for one’s group can also lead to pessimistic predictions. Upon arrival to the laboratory, groups of four participants were split into teams of two based on bogus criteria. Participants were informed that their teammate would compete against a member of the other team in a trivia game consisting of both easy (e.g., “pop culture”) and hard (e.g., “50’s movies”) categories. They provided likelihood estimates regarding outcomes for each category. As predicted, team allegiance inflated participants’ optimism about their teammate winning the easy categories, but deflated optimism about their teammate winning the hard categories. Path analyses supported the proposed account indicating that preferences for a teammate to win led to an enhanced focus on the teammate’s strengths and weaknesses (and neglect of the strengths and weaknesses of the other competitor).