Polish steel consumption, 1974-2008

This article presents changes in apparent consumption of steel in Poland in the years 1974-2003. Sudden changes in Polish steel consumption and intensity of steel use in the period of consideration are characteristic of changes in all countries of Central-Eastern Europe. They were tied to a process of transformation from a centrally controlled economy into a market-oriented economy. Particular analyses were made of changes in intensity of steel use in Poland in the years 1992-2003 in sectors of the economy determining the steel consumption. Forecasts for the sector indicators of intensity of steel use were made for the next 5 years. They were utilised in preparing a steel consumption forecast for Poland till the year 2008. The forecast indicates that growth in steel consumption is to be expected from about 8350 thousand tonnes in the year 2003 to about 9520 thousand tonnes in the year 2008. This growth in consumption will accompany a small decrease of the intensity of steel use. For estimation of the regression equations used in the forecast, actual data obtained for the years 1992-2003 was applied. This was a period where the rules of a market economy affected the consumption of steel in Poland. Indicators of steel consumption and also total GDP shares in considered sectors indicated permanent trends of changes over the period.