Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Probability assignment; Justification; Evaluative precepts;
مقالات ISI احتمال ذهنی (ترجمه نشده)
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Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; De Finetti's conjecture; Ordinal probability; Gambling semantics; Subjective probability; Ordered multisets; Plausible reasoning;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Risk perception; Subjective probability; Fire; Emergency survivor; Firefighter;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; J24; D82; M12; Only child; Competition; Ambiguity; Subjective probability; Probability weighting function;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; C73; D01; D80; D81; D83; D90; Belief revision; Subjective probability; Bayes' and Jeffrey's rules; Axiomatic foundations; Fine-grained versus coarse-grained beliefs; Unawareness;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Consensus; Group decision-making; Subjective probability; Imprecise opinion
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Uncertainty; Regeneration; Stopping value; Subjective probability; Risks; Climate change;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Belief functions; Necessity measures; Subjective probability; Many-valued events; Betting methods; De Finetti
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; D70; D81; Multiattribute utility; Separability; Subjective probability; Harsanyi; Koopmans; Ex ante versus ex post welfare;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Bayesian prior distribution; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Web-based elicitation;
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Uncertain rewards; Promotions; Conditional rebates; Consumer utility model; Risk aversion; Subjective probability
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Gender; Risk aversion; Decision-making; Subjective probability; Uncertainty
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; 01A55; 6003; 60A99; 62A01Nineteenth-century probability theory; Objective probability; Subjective probability; Inductive logic; Syllogistic logic
Response paper to “The likelihood of encapsulating all uncertainty”: The relevance of additional information for the LR
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Likelihood ratio; Subjective probability; Evidence interpretation;
The LR does not exist
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Evidence interpretation; Likelihood ratio; Subjective probability;
Quantification of prior knowledge in geotechnical site characterization
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Geotechnical site characterization; Prior knowledge; Prior distribution; Engineering judgment; Subjective probability;
The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Decision theory; Scoring rule; Individualisation
Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Numerical probabilities; Directional ambiguity; Perceived base rates; Subjective probability; Hypothesis testing; Base rate neglect; Debiasing
Evaluating probability forecasts for GDP declines using alternative methodologies
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Binary prediction; Rare events; Survey of professional forecasters; Subjective probability; Calibration; Resolution; Skill score; Relative operating characteristics; Odds ratio; Recession
Relative concave utility for risk and ambiguity
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; C02; D03; D81; More risk averse; More ambiguity averse; Knightian uncertainty; Subjective probability; Nonexpected utility;
Losses loom more likely than gains: Propensity to imagine losses increases their subjective probability
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Loss aversion; Subjective probability; Asymmetry; Attention; Imagination; Negativity bias
Probabilistic uncertainty specification: Overview, elaboration techniques and their application to a mechanistic model of carbon flux
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Elicitation; Elaboration; Expert judgement; Mechanistic model; Environmental model; Sensitivity analysis; Emulation; Carbon flux
A loose and separate certainty: Caves, Fuchs and Schack on quantum probability one
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Objective probability; State preparation; Certainty; Counterfactuals
Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Expert elicitation; Expert judgement; Subjective probability; Cross-validation; Cooke Classical Model; Expected Relative Frequency model
A logical characterization of coherence for imprecise probabilities
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Probabilistic logic; Coherence; Betting framework; Imprecise probability; Many-valued logic
Equilibrium in prediction markets with buyers and sellers
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Parimutuel betting; Aggregate beliefs; Subjective probability;
Some properties of subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; D81; G11; C02; D03; Optimal expectation; Portfolio choice; Subjective probability;
Some reflections on uncertainty analysis and management
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Uncertainty analysis; Uncertainty representation; Model uncertainty; Subjective probability
The foundations of statistics with black swans
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; C00; C02; C40; G44; D81; G01; G32; Q54Foundations of statistics; Black swans; Rare events; Catastrophic risks; Likelihood; Subjective probability; Finitely additive measures
Simple axioms for countably additive subjective probability
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Monotone Continuity; Countable additivity; Exponential time discounting;
Consumer willingness-to-pay to reduce the probability of retail foodborne pathogen contamination
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Choice experiment; Contingent demand; Cost-of-illness; E. coli; Ethyl gas; Foodborne illness; Food safety; Hamburger; Hot dog; Irradiation; Listeria; Stated preference; Subjective probability; Willingness-to-pay;
Viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV IVb) risk factors and association measures derived by expert panel
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Viral hemorrhagic septicemia; Subjective probability; Risk factor; Freshwater fish; Surveillance
Combining surveillance and expert evidence of viral hemorrhagic septicemia freedom: A decision science approach
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Disease freedom; Bayesian; Risk-based surveillance; Prioritization; Decision support; Evidence aggregation; Time value of information; Subjective probability
The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Desirability bias; Wishful thinking; Optimism; Motivated reasoning; Likelihood judgment; Subjective probability
A foundation for support theory based on a non-Boolean event space
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Support theory; Subjective probability; Judgmental heuristics; Intuitionistic logic; Intuitionism; Probability judgment;
Cognitive bias as an indicator of animal emotion and welfare: Emerging evidence and underlying mechanisms
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Emotion; Cognitive bias; Animal welfare; Attention; Reward valuation; Subjective probability
P3a and P3b components associated to the neurocognitive evaluation of invalidly cued targets
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Spatial cueing; P3a; P3b; Trial evaluation; Invalid cues; Subjective probability
Probabilistic sophistication and stochastic monotonicity in the Savage framework
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; Probabilistic sophistication; Stochastic monotonicity; Sure-thing principle; Cumulative dominanceD81
TU Delft expert judgment data base
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Expert judgment; Rational consensus; Calibration; Information; Subjective probability
How egocentrism and optimism change in response to feedback in repeated competitions
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Egocentrism; Shared-circumstance effect; Comparative judgment; Subjective probability; Overoptimism; Underoptimism; Learning; Feedback; Experience
Quantum Bayesianism: A study
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Quantum Bayesianism; Subjective probability; System/apparatus divide; Instrumentalism; Quantum ontology; Moore's paradox
The epsilon-Gini-contamination multiple priors model admits a linear-mean-standard-deviation utility representation
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; D81; Subjective probability; Maximin expected utility; Relative Gini concentration index; Mean-variance utility;
A subjective model of experimentation
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; D11; D81; D83Experimentation; Preference for flexibility; Subjective probability
Option fixation: A cognitive contributor to overconfidence
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Confidence; Subjective probability; Likelihood judgment; Calibration; Confirmation bias; Explanation; Dual process; Financial knowledge
Subjective probability and quantum certainty
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Subjective probability; de Finetti; Copenhagen interpretation; State preparation; Certainty
Simplicity and probability in causal explanation
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Causal explanation; Simplicity; Inference to the best explanation; Subjective probability
Subjective probabilities on “small” domains
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; D80; D81; Subjective probability; Expected utility; Probabilistic sophistication; Ellsberg Paradox; Mosaic;
Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; D81Preference for flexibility; Subjective state space; Subjective probability; Subjective decision tree
Distorting the probability of treatment success to justify treatment decisions
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Value-induced bias; Cognitive dissonance; Subjective probability; Risk perception
Decision by sampling
Keywords: احتمال ذهنی; Judgment; Decision making; Sampling; Memory; Utility; Gains and losses; Temporal discounting; Subjective probability