Fracture Risk Prediction Using Phalangeal Bone Mineral Density or FRAX®?-A Danish Cohort Study on Men and Women

In this prospective study, we investigated the ability of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), phalangeal bone mineral density (BMD), and age alone to predict fractures using data from a Danish cohort study, Danish Health Examination Survey 2007-2008, including men (n = 5206) and women (n = 7552) aged 40-90 yr. Data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire and by phalangeal BMD measurement. Information on incident and prevalent fractures, rheumatoid arthritis, and secondary osteoporosis was retrieved from the Danish National Patient Registry. Survival analyses were used to examine the association between low, intermediate, and high risk by phalangeal T-score or FRAX and incident fractures, and receiver operating characteristic curves were obtained. Mean follow-up time was 4.3 yr, and a total of 395 persons (3.1%) experienced a fracture during follow-up. The highest rate of major osteoporotic fractures was observed in persons with a high combined risk (FRAX ≥20% and T-score ≤−2.5; women: 32.7 and men: 27.6 per 1000 person-yr). This group also had the highest risk of hip fractures (women: 8.1 and men: 7.2 per 1000 person-yr). FRAX and T-score in combination analyzed as continuous variables performed overall best in the prediction of major osteoporotic fractures. In predicting hip fractures, there was a tendency of T-score performing worse than the other methods.