Climate change impacts on hydrology and environment in the Pre-Aral region

The Pre-Aral region and dried bed of the Aral Sea is an example of interaction between hydrological, environmental, and climatic factors, and their impacts on human life. About 2000 km2 of dried seabed is created each year. This disrupts the seaside settlements that are fully dependent on the maintenance of wetland systems, preservation of lakes, and inflows of river water used for drinking and irrigation.SIC ICWC conducts continuous monitoring over the Pre-Aral region through satellite images. Studies have shown that in order to maintain environmental sustainability of the Amu Darya river delta, it is necessary to supply 8 km3 of water in wet years, 4.6 km3 in average years and 3.1 km3 in dry years.Although the period from 2002 to 2007 was wet, in 2002 and in 2007 the quantity of water delivered to Amu Darya delta was half of the planned average. In 2008, virtually all water bodies in the delta were drained by the end of the year. In 2009, which was quite water-abundant, river water delivery was started only in August. This negatively affected fish stock in the delta and especially migrating birds that previously used the delta as the transit place. Climate change has resulted in more frequent dry years, and this has greatly affected the environmental sustainability in Pre-Aral region.In Central Asia, the Pre-Aral region is the zone with the worst socio-economic conditions. The Gross National Product in terms of the Purchasing Power Parity per capita is 40% lower than the republic average. The mean monthly salary is 1.3 times less than the average for Uzbekistan. The Republic of Karakalpakstan has the lowest human development index as compared to other provinces and zones in Uzbekistan. The Pre-Aral region population is stressed by poor quality drinking water, poor nutrition, and other effects of climate change. These combined with low incomes has resulted in high incidence of disease. The region has a high infant and child mortality, as well as high mortality of population as a whole. People have been leaving the Pre-Aral region at an increasing rate each year. The former port city of Muynak population has been reduced by 90 percent over the course of the last few years.The objective of this work was to demonstrate the dependence of the Pre-Aral region on available water supplies, and how aridity impacts the local populace. Climate is the main factor governing the amount of water available, and dry years are now becoming more frequent. Water scarcity requires better management of water to ensure fair and equitable distribution between upstream and downstream users.