Simulation of regional temperature and precipitation in the past 50 years and the next 30 years over China

Climate change was simulated based on greenhouse gas concentrations using IAP/LASG GOLAS 4.0. In the various regions of China, climate change was detected over the past 50 years of the 20th century and its trend was projected for 30 years into the future. The results show that the simulation is reasonable for the regions of China over the past 50 years. There were obvious warming trends of about 0.84 °C/50a in China, with maximum 1.05 °C/50a and minimum 0.63 °C/50a rates recorded in western and southern regions respectively, based on the greenhouse gas experiments within GOALS. The correlation between observed and simulated values greatly exceeds the 99% confidence level. Of particular note were clearly increased winter temperatures. Winter warming of 0.985 °C/50a across China, bounded by a maximum of 1.11 °C/50a in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and a minimum of 0.96 °C/50a in North China, calculated by GOALS, were only slightly different from recorded observations. In the future 30 years, annual mean temperatures will continue to rise (0.71 °C/30a) across the Chinese Mainland. Maximum increases will be in the northeastern region (1.0 °C/30a) and minimum increases in southern parts (0.36 °C/30a). Precipitation projections are more complex than those for temperature. In western China and North China, the precipitation will increase. An upward trend is also forecast for the Tibetan Plateau.