Fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin, China

Based on the hydrologic and meteorological data in the Tarim River basin from 1958 to 2004, the trend, characteristics and spatial variation of climate change in the upper reaches of the Tarim River were examined in the study. The long-term trend of climate change and hydrological variations were determined by using both Mann–Kendall and Mann–Whitney nonparametric tests. The results showed that the temperature and precipitation had significantly increased in the drainage basin in the mid-1980s. The climate was the warmest in 1990s among the recent 50 years. The increase of temperature in the tributaries of the Aksu River and Kaidu-Kongque River is higher than that in the tributaries of the Yarkand River and Hotan River. The streamflow at Aksu River showed a significant increasing monotonic trend. The annual runoff in the Aksu River had increased by 10.9% since 1990. The independence test of temperature and precipitation with χ2χ2 of the El Nino event reveals that there is no significant effect of the El Nino and La Nina events on the annual temperature and annual precipitation in the drainage basin.