Economic analyses of sea-level rise adaptation strategies in transportation considering spatial autocorrelation

• Four different economic analysis methods are proposed for four adaptation strategies.
• Spatial autocorrelation effect of land value is modeled.
• Length of shoreline protection plays an important role in the economic analysis.
• All shoreline protection and accommodation are not recommended.
• Value of travel time saving and spatial autocorrelation effects add to the benefits.

This paper reports the impacts of economic analysis results on sea-level rise adaptation decision making with different economic analysis methods. The methodology was applied to Hillsborough County, Florida. A general conclusion is that partial shoreline protection should be implemented to reduce the potential impacts of sea-level rise on important land use, then transportation infrastructure is preferred to be protected or accommodated, and finally managed relocation should be adopted. More specifically, the results show that the best adaptation strategy is shoreline protection plus transportation infrastructure accommodation; the length of shoreline protection plays an important role in the economic analysis results, and shoreline protection and accommodation adaptation strategies for all areas are not recommended because of either high costs or low benefits; the value of travel time saving and spatial autocorrelation play important roles in the economic analysis results of accommodation strategy, which highlights the importance of including indirect economic factors and spatial autocorrelation impacts when making sea-level rise adaptation decisions.