A posterior semi-stochastic low Earth debris on-orbit breakup simulation model

A posterior modeling approach for on-orbit breakup, named ASSEMBLE (A Semi-Stochastic Environment Modeling of Breakup in LEO), is proposed. The main objectives of this paper are the statistical characterization of the orbital and physical parameters of the fragments generated by an on-orbit breakup. The analysis of two line element (TLE) data of the fragments of some fragmentation events, such as the Indian PSLV-TES rocket body breakup, showed their orbital parameters obey statistical distributions. The apogee or perigee height, limited by breakup altitude, and the inclination follow Laplace distributions, while the eccentricity a Lognormal distribution. Subsequently, suitable empirical relations in the literature help to expand the fragmentation scenario to mass, effective area, and ballistic coefficient. Lastly, the simulation of well-known historical breakups of (i) SPOT I rocket body, (ii) COSMOS 1813, (iii) STEP II rocket body, and (iv) CBERS I/ SAC I provide further confidence in the present model for orbital debris studies.