Where the good signatures are: Signature collection and initiative qualification in California

• We study the distribution of initiative qualification in California.
• We use county-level data from eight ballot measures from four elections.
• Proponents gather over 50% extra signatures, and about 80% of signatures are estimated to be valid.
• Signatures are gathered fairly equitably by county based on population.
• A geographic distribution requirement would have little effect on these measures.

Using data from eight recent California initiatives and data provided by the California Secretary of State's Office, this research explores the geographic source of signatures and their distribution across counties, investigates both total signatures and valid signatures, and presents a regression analysis to study how characteristics of counties relate to the number of signatures gathered. The findings indicate a high rate of equity in the distribution of signature gathering and little demographic targeting across measures. The study also finds that a variety of social and political factors influence the number of total and valid signatures across counties, though the results are more consistent for the former.